Blackjack Running Count True Count

At what count/true count should you start betting? I'm very new to counting, I've been practicing with a deck of cards. I recently learned about the true count - is it more optimal to use than the running count? Feb 13, 2019  Yes No. True Count of Running Count 21 Half Decks 6 Say you have a running count of 21 and to get the true count you must divide the running count by the number of half decks. In this case let's say there are 6 half decks remaining.

Blackjack True Count Chart

Six Deck Unbalanced Red 7 Running Count Conversion to Equivalent Hi-Lo Balanced True Count and Sensitivity of True Count to Errors in Estimating Decks Remaining

By Conrad Membrino
(From Blackjack Forum Vol. XVII #4, Winter 1997)
© Blackjack Forum 1997

Running Count Blackjack

rc.u = 23456p + (7p/2) - TAp

Red-7 is almost equivalent to hi-lo count + counting all the sevens as (1/2) each.
rc.u = unbalanced running count = 23456+ (7p/2) - TAp
tc.b = balanced true count
n = number of decks
dp = decks played
dr = decks remaining
rc.u(tc.b) = unbalanced running count corresponding to a balance true count of tc.b
rc.hl = hi=lo running count = 23456p - TAp
rc.u = hi-lo + (7p)/2
if hi-lo has a true count of 't' then rc.hl = t*dr and
rc.u = rc.hl + ExpVal(7p)/2 = t*dr + 2*dp = (t+2-2)*dr + 2*dp = (t-2)*dr + 2*n

rc.u = 2*n + (tc.b - 2) * dr

Number of Decks = 6

Red-7 Running Counts Corresponding to Various True Counts for a Six Deck Game

Six Deck Gamerc.unbal
rc.unbal = 23456 + (7p/2) - TAp decks played
tc.balrc.unbal12345
012 - 2*dr246810
112 - dr7891011
21212121212

12

312 + dr1716151413
412 + 2*dr2220181614

Sensitivity of True Count to Errors in Estimating Decks Remaining

Estimation of True Count Using the Red 7:

rc.r7 = red 7 running countn = number of decks
tc = true countdr = decks remaining
rc.r7 = 2*n + (tc - 2) * dr

Number of Decks = 8

Red-7 Running Counts Corresponding to Various
True Counts for an Eight Deck Game

Eight Deck Gamerc.r7
rc.r7 = 23456 + (7p/2) - TAp decks played
tcrc.r734 5 6 7
21616 16 16 1616
316 + dr2120191817
416 + 2*dr2624222018

Estimation of true count with the Red 7
in an Eight Deck Game:

  1. Estimate decks remaining
  2. Compare Red 7 running count with 16, 16 + dr, or 16 + 2*dr for true counts of 2, 3, or 4
  3. Use calculated true count with High-Low strategy indices.*
Blackjack running count true count 2017

(*Ed. Note: Membrino is suggesting here that you may use this true count method not only to estimate your advantage, but also to alter your strategy with all Hi-Lo strategy indices. This is not the way I have developed the Red 7 in the new Blackbelt, but if you used a Starting Count of 0, then you could use this true count methology with any standard set of Hi-Lo count-per-deck indices. --Arnold Snyder)

Sensitivity of True Count to Errors
in Estimating Decks Remaining:

  1. The closer to the pivot point, the less sensitive the true count is to errors in estimating the decks remaining.
  2. At the pivot point, the true count is independent of the decks remaining
  3. Pivot Point of the Red 7: True Count = 2
  4. Pivot Point of Hi-Lo: True Count = 0
  5. At True Counts ≥ 2:
    (a) Red 7 is closer to its pivot point (tc=2) than the Hi-Lo is to its pivot point (tc=0)
    (b) Red 7 is less sensitive to errors in estimating decks remaining when calculating true count.
    (c) Red 7 gives more accurate true counts than Hi-Lo.

Example:

Blackjack Running Count True Count
A = Actual E = Estimated
dr:a = actual drdr:e = estimated dr
tc:a = actual tc tc:e = estimated tc

Eight Decks

Count
r7 = red 7hl = hi-lo
tc.r7 = 2 + (rc.r7 - 16)/drtc.hl = rc.hl/dr

Eight Decks
dr:a = 4 and tc:a = 3

Red 7 Hi-Lo
estimatederrorestimatederror
dr:erc.r7

tc:e

(tc:e - tc:a)rc.hltc:e(tc:e - tc:a)
6202.7 -0.3 122.0 -1.0
52.8 -0.2 2.4 -0.6
43.0 0.0 3.0 0.0
33.30.34.0 1.0
24.0 1.0 6.0 3.0


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