Wizard Recommends
- Jul 22, 2000 Doctrine of Maturity of Chances, Wizard of Odds, Gambling Systems Duplicity. Casino chairman recommends two-to-one (2-1) roulette systems by John Schroder - 3/07/2001. Wizard of Odds / Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos.
- Free casino games by the Wizard of Odds. Online Casino Games - Play Free For Fun. Most of these games are crude and simple but still playable, and many include an important feature: they will tell you if you don’t follow optimal strategy, so you can learn how to play better.
Gambling author and self-proclaimed guru, oddly named Wizard of Odds, on the payroll of casinos, wants big money to test roulette gambling systems.
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Introduction
Roulette is one of the easiest games to play and understand in the casino. As usual the easier a game is to understand the greater the house edge, and roulette is no exception. If you are looking for a easy to understand and slow paced table game, and are willing to sacrifice on the house edge, then you may like roulette. If you want something more stimulating or with a decent return I would suggest looking at other games.
One difference between roulette and all other table games is that roulette chips have no value denomination printed on them. This actually is the true definition of a chip, one which indicates its value is technically called a check. The roulette table comes with six to eight sets of different colored chips, each set consisting of 300 chips. When a player purchases chips he gets his own color and the value of each chip is the buy-in divided by the number of chips received. The dealer will place a token on top of the dealer's stack of that color of chips to indicate the value.
American Rules
A U.S. roulette wheel consists of 38 numbered slots: numbers 1 to 36, a zero, and a double zero. The betting layout consists of every individual number as well as a host of 'outside' bets on combinations of numbers. After the players make their bets, the dealer spins the wheel and a ball and after several seconds the ball will land in one of the numbered slots.
The following table displays the available bets, the win (on a 'to one' basis), and the probability of winning under U.S. rules. All casinos in the U.S. follow these rules except for in Atlantic City. The house edge on all bets is 1/19, or 5.26%, except for the 0-00-1-2-3 combination, which carries a house edge of 7.89%.
Double-Zero Roulette
| Bet | Pays | Probability Win | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| Black | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| Odd | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| Even | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| 1 to 18 | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| 19 to 36 | 1 | 47.37% | 5.26% |
| 1 to 12 | 2 | 31.58% | 5.26% |
| 13 to 24 | 2 | 31.58% | 5.26% |
| 25 to 36 | 2 | 31.58% | 5.26% |
| Six line (6 numbers) | 5 | 15.79% | 5.26% |
| First five (5 numbers) | 6 | 13.16% | 7.89% |
| Corner (4 numbers) | 8 | 10.53% | 5.26% |
| Street (3 numbers) | 11 | 7.89% | 5.26% |
| Split (2 numbers) | 17 | 5.26% | 5.26% |
| Any one number | 35 | 2.63% | 5.26% |
European Rules
What most call 'European roulette' is roulette played on a 37-number wheel, with one zero only. The pays are the same as in American roulette. However, with one zero the house edge is cut to 1/37, or 2.70%, on all bets.
The term European roulette is somewhat of a misnomer because you can find single-zero roulette all over the world. In fact, it is the standard outside the United States. Even in the United States you can find single-zero roulette in some high-limit rooms.
Atlantic City Rules
In Atlantic City, any all even money bets (red, black,odd, even, 1-18, 19-36) follow a variation of the European half-back rule (see below). If the ball lands in 0 or 00, then the player will lose only half of any even money bet. This lowers the house edge to 2.63% on these bets. This rule does not apply on single zero wheels.
French Rules
French roulette is played on a single wheel and also features a favorable 'en prison' or half-back rule. Under the 'half-back' rule, if the player makes any even money bet (red, black, odd, even, 1-18, 19-36), and the ball lands in zero, then the player gets half the bet back, known as 'la partage' in French.
The term French roulette is also somewhat of a misnomer because the 'la partage' rule can sometimes be found in casinos outside of France, including some high-limit rooms in Las Vegas.
Rather than lose half, the player sometimes may also choose to imprison the bet. If an imprisoned bet wins on the next spin it is released and the player gets it back, without winnings. What is subject to casino rules is what happens to an imprisoned bet if the ball lands in zero again on the next spin. At some casinos the bet loses, and at others it would become double imprisoned. If a double-imprisoned bet bet won on the next spin, it would move up a level, and become single-imprisoned again. If it lost, then if would become triple-imprisoned if the casino allowed it, otherwise it would lose.
The following table shows the probability of a win, push, and loss under every imprisonment variation I'm aware of.
Imprisonment Odds
| Imprisonment | Win | Push | Loss | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single | 0.48648649 | 0.01314828 | 0.50036523 | -0.01387874 |
| Double | 0.48648649 | 0.01332346 | 0.50019005 | -0.01370356 |
| Triple | 0.48648649 | 0.01332583 | 0.50018768 | -0.01370120 |
| Infinite | 0.48648649 | 0.01332586 | 0.50018765 | -0.01370117 |
| French | 0.48648649 | 0.01351351 | 0.50000000 | -0.01351351 |
When given the choice to lose half or face imprisonment, the expected value is the same under French rules. Otherwise the expected loss is less losing half.
Triple-Zero Roulette
Triple-Zero Roulette is roulette played on a 39-number wheel. The wheel has the same numbers and colors as a double-zero wheel, plus a 39th place on the wheel. This 39th place will always be green and often the Logo of the casino where the game is located, for example an apple at the New York New York. The game premiered at the Venetian in Las Vegas in September, 2016.
Much like zero and double-zero, all even money bets lose if the ball lands in green. The order of the numbers 1 to 36 is the same as in single-zero roulette. The 0, 00, and Logo are all consecutive, with the Logo in the middle.
There is an added bet on any green, which pays 11 to 1. The house edge on every bet is 1/13 or 7.69%.
Short Pays
I've noticed some electronic roulette games don't pay the full 35 to 1 on single-numbers bets, and/or 17 to 1 on double-number bets. Invariably, any game that short pays the player like this is going to be on a double-zero wheel as well. The following two tables show the house edge on single- and double-number bets, according to the win, assuming a double-zero wheel, and based on 'to one' odds. Be careful that on electronic games wins are often given on a 'for one' basis, meaning the original wager is not returned on a win. To convert a 'for one' odds to 'to one' odds, subtract one.
Single-Number Bets
| Win | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 35 to 1 | 5.26% |
| 34 to 1 | 7.89% |
| 33 to 1 | 10.53% |
| 32 to 1 | 13.16% |
| 31 to 1 | 15.79% |
| 30 to 1 | 18.42% |
Double-Number Bets
| Win | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 17 to 1 | 5.26% |
| 16 to 1 | 10.53% |
| 15 to 1 | 15.79% |
Best Roulette in the West
Best in Nevada: The Bellegio, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand, Mirage, Rio, and Wynn all have European roulette, with a house edge of 1.35%. Usually such wheels are in the high-limit rooms, but the MGM and Mirage also have a European wheel in the main casino at a $25 minimum.
Best in California: It is my understanding that the only single-zero roulette in California is at the Barona casino, with a house edge of 2.70%.
Las Vegas Rules Survey
I am proud to present my Las Vegas roulette survey at my companion site Wizard of Vegas.
Number Placement
To the casual observer, it would appear that the numbers on the wheel are not organized and seem to be distributed randomly. The only obvious patterns are that red and black numbers alternate and that usually two odd numbers alternate with two even numbers. However the distribution of numbers was carefully arranged so that the sum of the numbers for any given section of the wheel would be roughly equal to any other section of equal size. Most numbers are part of a pair, with one number between them. These pairs add to either 37 or 39.
For what it is worth, the sum of all the numbers in roulette is 666.
Wheel Tracking
Some people and books claim that roulette wheels are biased, with a heavy side and a light side. Gravity causes the numbers in the heavy side to hit more often. This, I believe, used to be true when the quality of the equipment was poor. However, modern roulette wheels are much better and very rigorously tested. Only in a casino using a very dated wheel, may you be able to find a biased one by testing many thousands of spins. Based on stories I have heard, your odds of finding such wheels are probably best in Europe.
Betting Systems
Ugh. If you think you can beat roulette with a betting system please read my section debunking betting systems. If you don't believe what I say there, here is what the Encyclopedia Britannica says under the subject of roulette:
The oldest and most common betting system is the Martingale or 'doubling-up' system,in which bets are doubled progressively. This probably dates back to the invention of the Roulette wheel, but every day of the week some gambler somewhere reinvents it, or some variation of it, and believes he has something new. Over the years hundreds of 'sure-fire' winning systems have been dreamed up, but regardless of what system is used, in the long run it cannot overcome the house's advantage of the 0, or 0 and 00. This house advantage is the only system that consistently wins in the long run.
'No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking.' — Albert Einstein
Free Roulette Wizard
San Diego Area Roulette
The California Constitution prohibits a ball and wheel alone to determine the outcome in roulette. In the greater San Diego area the casinos have thought of some creative ways to offer roulette anyway. Visit my page onSan Diego County roulette to see how they do it, and who offers the best odds.Ball Steering
I get asked a lot about whether I believe dealers can influence the spin to a certain area of the wheel. I used to be very skeptical of it. However, after considering the articles How to Win at Roulette — Part I and Part II by Arnold Snyder as well as other evidence, I think it would be easy for a colluding dealer could do a late slow spin to benefit a wheel clocking player. An extremely skillful dealer may even be able to influence the ball to a certain sector of the wheel. So, for now, I'm still straddling the fence on this one (ow!).
Organic Roulette Experiment
In March 2017, I concluded an analysis of an electronic roulette game by Interblock for ball steering away from perceived wheel clockers. For more information please see my page on the Organic Roulette Experiment.
Play for Free
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Written by: Michael Shackleford
Posted by Chip (Chipcasher@aol.com) on July 22, 2000; later updates.
In Reply to: Wizard of Odds: Phony Gambling Author Paid by Casinos posted by Ion Saliu on July 22, 2000.
: Chip : I already know a guy nick-named Wizard of Odds. His nickname is valid only insofar as related to mysticism. I think his correct nickname should be 'Lizard of Odds': His odds-related knowledge belongs to the dinosaurs' era! He visited my website in 1998. He was so impressed that he included my page on Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) in his Hot Links, or something like that.
Despite all the evidence I have supplied I continue to get challenges via e-mail from people who believe their gambling system is the exception to the rule and really does work. In mathematics rules do not have exceptions, if they did they wouldn't be a rule in the first place. Those with these claims always ask that I write a simulation program to prove their claim. I am not about to write free gambling programs to every Tom, Dick, and Harry with a casino betting system. If you still are a true believer then pay me $1000 and I will write an honest program to test any reasonable betting system. In the event that your gambling system does show a profit over millions of bets not only will I refund your money but I will publicly proclaim on my main page I was wrong and give you full credit for disproving every respectable book on probability ever written.
Boy this gets easier and easier. First thank you all for all of your e mails. I am truly humbled. Seems old ION isn't quite the hot shot he thinks. So let's set him up! You will not see me refer to Powerplay as a 'system' as you refer to yours. I encourage all reading this to go to wizardofodds.com and reiterate Senior ION's tripe above. NONSENSE is preciously what your comments are. Mike Shakleford will eat you up and spit you out. Please folks, contact him and pressure ION the magnificent to submit the $1,000 for the gambling challenge. He sure wiggled good didn't he.
Let's go to another part of Mike's gambling site. Here is a question and his reply:
Q: Your analysis of various side bets like Streak, Pair Square and others was very interesting. Do you know how these new games get invented and established? Do the casinos employ guys like you to compute the probabilities? If so, are the games copyrighted in some way? Thanks. – Bob Pierce of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
A: I could talk about this all day. Part of my income is derived from analyzing games such as these. The gaming authorities require such analysis before a game can be licensed to play. Usually these games are invented by an individual or are owned by a gaming company. After the casino game owner receives a license it must go through a 30-day trial period. If the trial period went well the owner can then apply for a permanent license. The entire process is very slow and it is difficult to get a casino to be the guinea pig for the trial period. Casinos are actually quite risk averse in their business decisions. Yes, the game owner will usually seek a copyright to protect others from stealing the idea. Click here to learn more about my consulting services.
Now let's see. I(r)ON(head)is name calling a mathematical genius who is paid for analyzing games of chance. But, he is afraid of a $50 snake oil salesman. But wait let's go another step, on Mike's site. Ok ION, read it and start your bs meter running:
If you don't believe me here is what the Encyclopedia Britannica says under the subject of gambling:
'A common gamblers' fallacy called 'the doctrine of the maturity of the chances' (or 'Monte Carlo fallacy') falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of 'systems' have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays.'
Ok now notice the word gambling system and how it is in quotes. Who uses that word to promote, what a bargain, $50 system(s)? BTW, I think you might have to go to my last reply under the challenge, and explain how you are not going to cause the game of roulette to shut down.
How about 1 more, just for laughs. In this corner ION Saliu. His opponent, originally from Germany, Albert Einstein. Yes that's right, old Al said it is impossible to ever beat a fair game of roulette in the long run. So who are you going to bet on ladies and gentleman. As for me, I'll take Einstein and lay the points.
Ion, your in over your head. You shoot off your mouth and anyone who is knowledgeable about gambling in any serious manner can see that you are indeed a fool. I have been around for years and I'm still here. Your big thing is 'Chip's afraid to play me..' Each time you harp on that you make a bigger moron out of yourself than the last time. Get a hold of some scholarly work on the subject of gambling, like Thorp's The Mathematics of Gambling, or something by Peter Griffin. Research gambling strategies like the Kelly Criterion. Your shtick is played out and boring. Your an adolescent trying to rebel against authority. So as I close, I expect you'll have a retort and make a bigger fool out of yourself. My playing partner, Playbig 2000, has been falling down laughing at you from the start. He was a member of Ken Uston's card counting blackjack teams in the 80's. I guess you want to challenge (yawn) him too. If you do, give him some time. He needs to finish unpacking at his new house, bought with money won playing baccarat. Thank you Bally's on behalf of Playbig gambling strategy. He has been contemplating posting here too. Don't forget to send in your $50 folks!!
Set up complete,
Chip
Ion Saliu's note
But why does Wizard of Odds beg his website visitors to buy his 'winning gambling systems'? Actually, even his 'name' 'The Wizard of Odds' is stolen from a 1970's TV show! Doesn't he say first that there is no winning gambling systems? That all gambling systems fail? He even wrote a book blatantly entitled 'Gambling 102: The Best Strategies for All Casino Games'! If that's not schizophrenia, I don't know what is… Chip as well: No gambling system can win… yet his gambling systems won big at blackjack and baccarat and roulette!!!
Gambler's fallacy and all, it's all about streaks — not only losing, but winning as well. We can notice in a vast majority of cases that most deviations from the norm (expected number of successes) fall within 1 standard deviation. The normal probability rule is very lax, or cautious … or generous, one might as well say! Read also: Demise of Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gambler's Fallacy.
Wizard of Odds / Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos.Set the record straight on Chip, his real name, criminal behavior, Powerplay roulette, baccarat - June 2004.
Roulette: Software, Systems, Super Roulette Strategy
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- 'Roulette Systems', Threats from Casino Chairman.
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- Demise of Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gambler's Fallacy, Probability, Streaks.
- Download Software: Casino Gambling, Roulette, Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps.
Follow Ups
- Play millions of roulette spins, gambling system, strategy Ion Saliu7/22/2000.
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